{"id":1786509,"date":"2018-10-29T18:49:27","date_gmt":"2018-10-29T22:49:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/?p=1786509"},"modified":"2018-10-29T18:49:27","modified_gmt":"2018-10-29T22:49:27","slug":"rethinking-the-cone-of-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2018\/10\/rethinking-the-cone-of-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Rethinking the Cone of Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

A feature of hurricane maps is the so-called cone of uncertainty, which shows the range of likely paths the hurricane is forecasted to follow. The problem is that the cone of uncertainty is easily misinterpreted by the reader. The MIT Technology Review<\/em>\u2019s Karen Hao looks at five ways the cone can be misinterpreted<\/a>, along with some alternative methods of visualizing a hurricane’s projected path. [Gretchen Peterson<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A feature of hurricane maps is the so-called cone of uncertainty, which shows the range of likely paths the hurricane is forecasted to follow. The problem is that the cone of uncertainty is easily misinterpreted… More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"link","meta":{"autoblue_enabled":true,"autoblue_custom_message":"","autoblue_shares":[],"autoblue_post_url":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,8],"tags":[662],"class_list":["post-1786509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-link","hentry","category-cartography","category-weather-and-climate","tag-hurricanes","post_format-post-format-link"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1787700,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2019\/09\/the-dangers-of-hurricane-maps-cone-of-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":1786509,"position":0},"title":"The Dangers of Hurricane Maps’ Cone of Uncertainty","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"5 September 2019","format":"link","excerpt":"The cone of uncertainty is a core feature of hurricane maps: it shows the potential routes a hurricane is likely to take (the path grows over time, as we\u2019re less certain where the storm goes next). But it\u2019s misinterpreted in ways that put people at risk. That\u2019s the argument made\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/hurricane-cairo-nyt-1024x683.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/hurricane-cairo-nyt-1024x683.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/hurricane-cairo-nyt-1024x683.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/hurricane-cairo-nyt-1024x683.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1810142,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2022\/11\/changing-the-cone-of-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":1786509,"position":1},"title":"Changing the Cone of Uncertainty","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"30 November 2022","format":"link","excerpt":"The cone of uncertainty is a feature of hurricane maps: it shows the potential paths a storm\u2019s centre may take, not the areas at risk when it makes landfall. Not being in the cone does not mean you\u2019re safe: that misunderstanding has the potential to put people at risk. A\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1789174,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2020\/08\/hurricane-laura\/","url_meta":{"origin":1786509,"position":2},"title":"Hurricane Laura","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"26 August 2020","format":"link","excerpt":"Hurricane Laura information and resources, including maps of the observed and forecasted storm track, potential rainfall, storm surge and flooding, and other warning maps, can be found via NOAA\u2019s Laura event page, the National Hurricane Center\u2019s Hurricane Laura page, and the Esri Disaster Response Program\u2019s Hurricane Hub. [GIS Lounge]","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Hurricane Laura","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/hurricane-laura-viirs-1024x576.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/hurricane-laura-viirs-1024x576.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/hurricane-laura-viirs-1024x576.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/hurricane-laura-viirs-1024x576.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1786454,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2018\/10\/hurricane-michaels-impact\/","url_meta":{"origin":1786509,"position":3},"title":"Hurricane Michael’s Impact","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"17 October 2018","format":"link","excerpt":"It's after the fact, at least in terms of initial landfall (if not aftermath), but maps I've seen of Hurricane Michael include the USGS's Hurricane Michael page, which includes an event support map and a map of coastal change impacts; and imagery from the Suomi NPP satellite that shows the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Disasters"","block_context":{"text":"Disasters","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/disasters\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4901,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2017\/09\/hurricane-irmas-water-footprint\/","url_meta":{"origin":1786509,"position":4},"title":"Hurricane Irma’s Water Footprint","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"19 September 2017","format":"link","excerpt":"Quite the dramatic animation from the USGS's Office of Water Information: it shows not only Hurricane Irma's path through Florida, but also the total accumulated rainfall and stream gauge height. As the path of the hurricane moves across the U.S. mainland, the map erupts in the blue that shows total\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/irma-water-footprint.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/irma-water-footprint.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/irma-water-footprint.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/irma-water-footprint.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1786253,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2018\/09\/hurricane-florence-a-link-roundup\/","url_meta":{"origin":1786509,"position":5},"title":"Hurricane Florence: A Link Roundup","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"14 September 2018","format":"link","excerpt":"The Washington Post has maps tracking Hurricane Florence's forecasted path and its potential impact. Researcher Eira Tansey compiled data from several NOAA sources\u2014hurricane track forecasting, potential storm surge flooding and long-duration hazards\u2014to create this map. A variety of NASA imagery of the storm is available via this Twitter moment. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/hurricane-florence-1024x576.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/hurricane-florence-1024x576.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/hurricane-florence-1024x576.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/hurricane-florence-1024x576.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1786509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1786509"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1786509\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1786510,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1786509\/revisions\/1786510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1786509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1786509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1786509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}