{"id":1787700,"date":"2019-09-05T09:29:56","date_gmt":"2019-09-05T13:29:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/?p=1787700"},"modified":"2019-09-05T09:29:56","modified_gmt":"2019-09-05T13:29:56","slug":"the-dangers-of-hurricane-maps-cone-of-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2019\/09\/the-dangers-of-hurricane-maps-cone-of-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"The Dangers of Hurricane Maps’ Cone of Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>
The New York Times<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The cone of uncertainty is a core feature of hurricane maps: it shows the potential routes a hurricane is likely to take (the path grows over time, as we\u2019re less certain where the storm goes next). But it\u2019s misinterpreted in ways that put people at risk. That\u2019s the argument made by Alberto Cairo<\/a> in an online infographic<\/a> (and in print<\/a>) in the New York Times<\/em> last week: research<\/a> reveals that people living along the edge of the cone are much less likely to prepare for the storm, even though the edge of the cone is one possible path for the centre<\/em> of the storm\u2014and the cone only covers 60 to 70 percent of the storm\u2019s potential paths in any event.<\/p>\n

Alberto Cairo goes into more detail about the problem<\/a>, and the responsibility of both journalists and readers when faced with such visualizations, on his blog. His book, How Charts Lie: Getting Smarter About Visual Information<\/em><\/a>, comes out from W. W. Norton<\/a> next month.<\/p>\n

Previously: Rethinking the Cone of Uncertainty<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The cone of uncertainty is a core feature of hurricane maps: it shows the potential routes a hurricane is likely to take (the path grows over time, as we\u2019re less certain where the storm goes… More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"link","meta":{"autoblue_enabled":true,"autoblue_custom_message":"","autoblue_shares":[],"autoblue_post_url":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[662,271,352],"class_list":["post-1787700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-link","hentry","category-weather-and-climate","tag-hurricanes","tag-infographics","tag-journalism","post_format-post-format-link"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1810142,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2022\/11\/changing-the-cone-of-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":1787700,"position":0},"title":"Changing the Cone of Uncertainty","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"30 November 2022","format":"link","excerpt":"The cone of uncertainty is a feature of hurricane maps: it shows the potential paths a storm\u2019s centre may take, not the areas at risk when it makes landfall. Not being in the cone does not mean you\u2019re safe: that misunderstanding has the potential to put people at risk. A\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1786509,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2018\/10\/rethinking-the-cone-of-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":1787700,"position":1},"title":"Rethinking the Cone of Uncertainty","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"29 October 2018","format":"link","excerpt":"A feature of hurricane maps is the so-called cone of uncertainty, which shows the range of likely paths the hurricane is forecasted to follow. The problem is that the cone of uncertainty is easily misinterpreted by the reader. The MIT Technology Review\u2019s Karen Hao looks at five ways the cone\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Cartography"","block_context":{"text":"Cartography","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/cartography\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4716,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2017\/08\/mapping-hurricane-harveys-impact\/","url_meta":{"origin":1787700,"position":2},"title":"Mapping Hurricane Harvey’s Impact","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"29 August 2017","format":"link","excerpt":"The Washington Post maps rainfall and flooding levels in the Houston area. The New York Times\u00a0is collecting several maps on two web pages. The first page deals with subjects like rainfall, river level, current and historical hurricane tracks, damage reports, and cities and counties under evacuation orders. Maps on the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/wapost-harvey-1024x573.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/wapost-harvey-1024x573.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/wapost-harvey-1024x573.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/wapost-harvey-1024x573.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4770,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2017\/09\/tracking-hurricane-irma\/","url_meta":{"origin":1787700,"position":3},"title":"Tracking Hurricane Irma","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"10 September 2017","format":"link","excerpt":"As they did with Hurricane Harvey, both the\u00a0New York Times and the\u00a0Washington Post\u00a0graphics departments have frequently updated map pages showing the projected path and impact of Hurricane Irma. The Times\u2019 page looks at the hurricane's current and projected path, threat of coastal flooding, and areas under evacuation, plus some context;\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/wapost-irma-954x1024.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/wapost-irma-954x1024.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/wapost-irma-954x1024.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/wapost-irma-954x1024.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4677,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2017\/08\/nasa-images-of-hurricane-harvey\/","url_meta":{"origin":1787700,"position":4},"title":"NASA Images of Hurricane Harvey","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"27 August 2017","format":"link","excerpt":"NASA's page on Hurricane Harvey has been updated many times, sometimes several times a day, since Harvey began its life as Tropical Depression 9 on 17 August. It includes plenty of satellite imagery of the storm, as well as temperature and rainfall maps.","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/hurricane-harvey-goes-aug26-1024x576.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/hurricane-harvey-goes-aug26-1024x576.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/hurricane-harvey-goes-aug26-1024x576.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/hurricane-harvey-goes-aug26-1024x576.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3007,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2016\/10\/hurricane-matthew-map-roundup\/","url_meta":{"origin":1787700,"position":5},"title":"Hurricane Matthew Map Roundup","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"6 October 2016","format":"link","excerpt":"Start with the National Hurricane Center, which has lots of different maps of Hurricane Matthew's\u00a0predicted path, weather warnings, rainfall potential and so forth.\u00a0See also maps from Weather Underground. Google's Crisis Map includes evacuation resources\u2014Red Cross shelters, evacuation routes, traffic data\u2014in addition to storm track and precipitation information. Matthew has already\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"nhc-matthew","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/nhc-matthew-1.gif?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/nhc-matthew-1.gif?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/nhc-matthew-1.gif?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/nhc-matthew-1.gif?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1787700","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1787700"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1787700\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1787703,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1787700\/revisions\/1787703"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1787700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1787700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1787700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}