{"id":1810142,"date":"2022-11-30T11:29:11","date_gmt":"2022-11-30T16:29:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/?p=1810142"},"modified":"2022-11-30T11:29:11","modified_gmt":"2022-11-30T16:29:11","slug":"changing-the-cone-of-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2022\/11\/changing-the-cone-of-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Changing the Cone of Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

The cone of uncertainty is a feature of hurricane maps: it shows the potential paths a storm’s centre<\/em> may take, not the areas at risk when it makes landfall. Not being in the cone does not<\/em> mean you’re safe: that misunderstanding has the potential to put people at risk<\/a>. A long piece in today’s Miami Herald<\/em><\/a> reports that changes to the cone may be afoot.<\/p>\n

New research from the University of Miami confirms what a lot of emergency managers already knew, that people don’t understand the cone, and the UM<\/abbr> experts are working with the National Hurricane Center to reshape it. Meanwhile, one Miami-based TV station, WSVN Channel 7, has already changed the way it displays the cone for storms, starting with Category 1 Hurricane Nicole in November.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Here’s the UM<\/abbr>’s news release<\/a> about that study.<\/p>\n

Previously: The Dangers of Hurricane Maps’ Cone of Uncertainty<\/a>; Rethinking the Cone of Uncertainty<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The cone of uncertainty is a feature of hurricane maps: it shows the potential paths a storm’s centre may take, not the areas at risk when it makes landfall. Not being in the cone does… More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"link","meta":{"autoblue_enabled":true,"autoblue_custom_message":"","autoblue_shares":[],"autoblue_post_url":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[662,352],"class_list":["post-1810142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-link","hentry","category-weather-and-climate","tag-hurricanes","tag-journalism","post_format-post-format-link"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1787700,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2019\/09\/the-dangers-of-hurricane-maps-cone-of-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":1810142,"position":0},"title":"The Dangers of Hurricane Maps’ Cone of Uncertainty","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"5 September 2019","format":"link","excerpt":"The cone of uncertainty is a core feature of hurricane maps: it shows the potential routes a hurricane is likely to take (the path grows over time, as we\u2019re less certain where the storm goes next). But it\u2019s misinterpreted in ways that put people at risk. That\u2019s the argument made\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/hurricane-cairo-nyt-1024x683.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/hurricane-cairo-nyt-1024x683.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/hurricane-cairo-nyt-1024x683.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/hurricane-cairo-nyt-1024x683.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1786509,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2018\/10\/rethinking-the-cone-of-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":1810142,"position":1},"title":"Rethinking the Cone of Uncertainty","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"29 October 2018","format":"link","excerpt":"A feature of hurricane maps is the so-called cone of uncertainty, which shows the range of likely paths the hurricane is forecasted to follow. The problem is that the cone of uncertainty is easily misinterpreted by the reader. The MIT Technology Review\u2019s Karen Hao looks at five ways the cone\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Cartography"","block_context":{"text":"Cartography","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/cartography\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3007,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2016\/10\/hurricane-matthew-map-roundup\/","url_meta":{"origin":1810142,"position":2},"title":"Hurricane Matthew Map Roundup","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"6 October 2016","format":"link","excerpt":"Start with the National Hurricane Center, which has lots of different maps of Hurricane Matthew's\u00a0predicted path, weather warnings, rainfall potential and so forth.\u00a0See also maps from Weather Underground. Google's Crisis Map includes evacuation resources\u2014Red Cross shelters, evacuation routes, traffic data\u2014in addition to storm track and precipitation information. Matthew has already\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"nhc-matthew","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/nhc-matthew-1.gif?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/nhc-matthew-1.gif?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/nhc-matthew-1.gif?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/nhc-matthew-1.gif?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1786253,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2018\/09\/hurricane-florence-a-link-roundup\/","url_meta":{"origin":1810142,"position":3},"title":"Hurricane Florence: A Link Roundup","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"14 September 2018","format":"link","excerpt":"The Washington Post has maps tracking Hurricane Florence's forecasted path and its potential impact. Researcher Eira Tansey compiled data from several NOAA sources\u2014hurricane track forecasting, potential storm surge flooding and long-duration hazards\u2014to create this map. A variety of NASA imagery of the storm is available via this Twitter moment. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/hurricane-florence-1024x576.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/hurricane-florence-1024x576.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/hurricane-florence-1024x576.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/hurricane-florence-1024x576.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1789174,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2020\/08\/hurricane-laura\/","url_meta":{"origin":1810142,"position":4},"title":"Hurricane Laura","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"26 August 2020","format":"link","excerpt":"Hurricane Laura information and resources, including maps of the observed and forecasted storm track, potential rainfall, storm surge and flooding, and other warning maps, can be found via NOAA\u2019s Laura event page, the National Hurricane Center\u2019s Hurricane Laura page, and the Esri Disaster Response Program\u2019s Hurricane Hub. [GIS Lounge]","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Hurricane Laura","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/hurricane-laura-viirs-1024x576.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/hurricane-laura-viirs-1024x576.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/hurricane-laura-viirs-1024x576.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/hurricane-laura-viirs-1024x576.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4770,"url":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/2017\/09\/tracking-hurricane-irma\/","url_meta":{"origin":1810142,"position":5},"title":"Tracking Hurricane Irma","author":"Jonathan Crowe","date":"10 September 2017","format":"link","excerpt":"As they did with Hurricane Harvey, both the\u00a0New York Times and the\u00a0Washington Post\u00a0graphics departments have frequently updated map pages showing the projected path and impact of Hurricane Irma. The Times\u2019 page looks at the hurricane's current and projected path, threat of coastal flooding, and areas under evacuation, plus some context;\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Weather and Climate"","block_context":{"text":"Weather and Climate","link":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/category\/weather-and-climate\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/wapost-irma-954x1024.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/wapost-irma-954x1024.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/wapost-irma-954x1024.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.maproomblog.com\/xq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/wapost-irma-954x1024.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1810142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1810142"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1810142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1810145,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1810142\/revisions\/1810145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1810142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1810142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maproomblog.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1810142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}